Yul Kwon:
After three months, why did Chinese police suddenly release Ai Weiwei on bail? To help us with the inside story, I spoke to Minxin Pei, Professor of Government and Director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College in California. There's been a lot of speculation that the reason for Ai Weiwei's release has to do with the fact that holding him was becoming a growing embarrassment to China. Now does that make sense to you?

Minxin Pei:
Absolutely, it makes sense to me, because the international pressure since his arrest has been relentless and the Chinese government does not want to be under that kind of spotlight for a long, long time. So it makes sense for them to cut their losses right away.

Yul Kwon:
But what about the allegations, or the suspicions, of tax evasion? Do those have any merit?

Minxin Pei:
I doubt for several reasons. Ai Weiwei himself must have known he was being watched by the government, so he must be very careful with what he does in terms of his business. Second, Chinese laws are very poorly written, tax laws in particular, so the Chinese government can always find some kind of loophole or mistake in anybody's business dealings. So I think this is really political and much less economic.

Yul Kwon:
What about the confession that he made? Was that basically coerced?

Minxin Pei:
I guess, because once you're in jail, you have very few options. And today, I read that he has also agreed not to talk to reporters for a year. I wonder what kind of law that is that shuts up a citizen who has not been found guilty of any wrongdoing.

Yul Kwon:
So in your view, were the Chinese authorities basically just trying to make an example of Ai Weiwei? Were they sending a message that even if you're a prominent artist with friends all around the world, it doesn't matter, we can still detain you?

Minxin Pei:
Absolutely, the Chinese government wants to deter other activists from following the example of Ai Weiwei. Ai Weiwei has been the most prominent. So they want to make an example of him.

Yul Kwon:
What do you think will happen to Ai Weiwei's friends and associates who weren't quite as well known or didn't have the kind of international support that he did? I'm thinking of people on Ai's staff or the journalist Wen Tao who supported his work?

Minxin Pei:
I think people like Wen Tao will not fare well, because the Chinese government has been very harsh on journalists. On the other hand, his support staff, such as his secretary or his assistants, will probably do better. They are likely to be let go very soon.

Yul Kwon:
What do you think the long-term consequences of the Chinese action will be? Do you think this will have a chilling effect on other activists like Ai Weiwei?

Minxin Pei:
The chilling effect will be very short term, so other activists will start challenging the Chinese government. Let's just look at the history. Liu Xiaobo, the Nobel Prize winner, went to jail two years ago. Now Ai Weiwei. So we expect other people to follow their footsteps.

Yul Kwon:
So do you think the fact that the Chinese government relented in this case might actually encourage more people to follow in Ai Weiwei's footsteps?

Minxin Pei:
I do not believe so, I believe there's a separate logic. People follow Ai Weiwei 's footsteps because of their idealism, because of their opposition to authoritarian rule.

Yul Kwon:
Thanks, Professor Pei. Minxin Pei is a Chinese scholar at Claremont McKenna College in southern California. Another possible reason for AWW's release is a celebration. China's communist party is about to turn 90 years old and officials want everything to go smoothly.