Sydnie Kohara:
To help us understand the dispute between China and the Philippines, we're joined by Don Emmerson, from the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Professor Emmerson is an expert on Southeast Asian affairs and an adviser to LinkAsia. Welcome to the show, Don. What hope do the Philippines have in any confrontation with China?

Don Emmerson, Stanford University:
Militarily, they have no hope at all. It's really a David and Goliath situation with one difference, namely, David had a slingshot. And the Philippine military is one of the weakest in all of Southeast Asia. They could not survive a military confrontation with China.

Sydnie Kohara:
So, what do you think, does Manila have any good options?

Don Emmerson, Stanford University:
I think that their options are limited, but they do have one option that could actually work out. I hope I'm not being too optimistic here. And that option is to treat this event on Scarborough Shoal as a wake-up call for Southeast Asia, but also for China, for the United States. That there has to be a code of conduct on the South China Sea that will lay down rules to which the parties will agree when things like this happen. So that escalation does not occur. I think Hillary Clinton should press for this. I think Philippine government should press for this. An occasion when this might actually come into existence, or at least be encouraged, would be in July at the ASEAN regional forum in Phnom Penh. Hillary will be there. All 10 ASEAN countries will be there. China will be there. I think this is a wake-up call, and the Philippines has to urge a long-run, permanent solution. Otherwise these kinds of conflicts are going to break out in various parts of the South China Sea, with possibly disastrous results.

Sydnie Kohara:
A couple of years ago, China got Southeast Asian nations nervous with its tough claims to the South China Sea. Is there much reaction from them about this current dispute with the Philippines?

Don Emmerson, Stanford University:
There is some reaction, particularly from Hanoi. The Vietnamese are also very concerned about Chinese claims to the South China Sea. But it's important to keep in mind that Southeast Asian nations themselves disagree about who owns what in the South China Sea. So it's hard for them to back the Philippines, because in doing so, some of those countries would abandon their own claims, which they're not about to do.

Sydnie Kohara:
Is there any indication that the United States will intervene either militarily or diplomatically? And what would be the fall-out?

Don Emmerson, Stanford University:
I think the United States will not intervene militarily, even though the Philippine government would perhaps like them to under certain circumstances. But the diplomatic pressure that the United States can provide under the Obama administration's turn towards Asia, the famous pivot towards Asia, I think that could be quite constructive. But it's a diplomatic effort, certainly not a military one.

Sydnie Kohara:
Thanks so much, Don. Don Emmerson is one of America's foremost scholars on Southeast Asia. He's based at Stanford University. And you can find out more about Don on our website.